Maybe 11 wins?

Discussing Army Black Knights football, basketball and more. United States Military Academy sports forum. West Point athletics discussion board.

wpgrad
New Recruit
Posts: 349
Joined: December 2016
Contact:

Re: Maybe 11 wins?

Post by wpgrad » Mon May 21, 2018 7:53 pm

I think a very realistic scenario is Army starts off 2-2, maybe even 2-3, and then perhaps wins every game the rest of the year

User avatar
RABBLE
New Recruit
Posts: 28498
Joined: December 2016
Contact:

Re: Maybe 11 wins?

Post by RABBLE » Wed May 23, 2018 4:25 pm

I believe if we open 2-3, winning all the remaining games is a dream that I don't think is possible. EMU will be decent SJS will be tough and so will our two annual rivals.
Duke will be a key game and when you have a key game to open the season and lose, you are in trouble.

FSUBulldog0
New Recruit
Posts: 173
Joined: December 2016
Contact:

Re: Maybe 11 wins?

Post by FSUBulldog0 » Thu May 24, 2018 12:58 pm

RABBLE wrote:I believe if we open 2-3, winning all the remaining games is a dream that I don't think is possible. EMU will be decent SJS will be tough and so will our two annual rivals.
Duke will be a key game and when you have a key game to open the season and lose, you are in trouble.
SJS? They are currently one of the worst teams in FBS football! If we don’t win that one we don’t deserve to play in a bowl game.

User avatar
GoBlackKnights85
New Recruit
Posts: 91
Joined: December 2016
Location: New York, NY
Contact:

Re: Maybe 11 wins?

Post by GoBlackKnights85 » Mon May 28, 2018 1:47 pm

After last season 11-1 is a plausible goal, considering how soft the schedule is. The Duke game will likely set the tone for the rest of the season. Without knowing too much about how our opponents have improved or weakened from last season, I'd categorize them thusly:

Almost Certain Wins (3):

Lafayette
Colgate
Liberty

I know Liberty beat an historically bad and dysfunctional Baylor program last year and their QB (the awesomely-named Buckshot Calvert) is a sparkplug who could give our secondary fits if we let him, but the rest of their 2017 season indicates that they're still a middling-level FCS team in terms of talent. If we lose to them at home the season is a wash. Colgate and Lafayette should be forgone conclusions.


Should Win (3):

Hawaii
SJSU
Miami OH

These are three teams that have either been in decline or languishing in neutral for the last several years. We shouldn't have any problem beating all three, unless they got great overnight or if we shoot ourselves in the foot.

Slightly favors Army (3):

EMU
Buffalo
Air Force

EMU and Buffalo are both long-suffering programs who have seemingly turned it around under competent coaching staffs. They both almost beat us in our house and both could have made a bowl if a few breaks went their way. They will both be formidable opponents on the road. USAFA looks to be in rebuilding mode and considering how we humbled them in Colorado Springs last year the edge has to go to us at Michie, but beating them is obviously never an easy task.

Pure Toss-Ups (2):

Duke
Navy

Duke is a solid program and will be a difficult opponent on their home turf. I expect a similar close struggle to the ones we had the last two seasons. Navy is Navy. Neither side is going to have a comfortable victory so long as Monken and Niumatalolo are on opposite sides of the field. They know each other too well and there's simply too much parity in every facet of the matchup year after year to expect anything but a nailbiting one-score game.

Probable Loss (1):

Oklahoma

They've lost some guys (Mayfield most notably) to graduation/attrition but let's be realistic - a win here would be the stuff of fairy tales. Cover the spread and I'll be happy.

With all this considered, I'd say that 11-1 is a possible, albeit lofty, goal. A lot would have to go our way. A repeat of 9-3 would be a better measuring stick of what constitutes a successful season, but only if that includes another CiC trophy. Anything less would be a big disappointment. 7-5 should be the absolute floor of expectations and anything less than that would be bordering on catastrophic.


gabn92
New Recruit
Posts: 197
Joined: December 2016
Contact:

Re: Maybe 11 wins?

Post by gabn92 » Mon May 28, 2018 5:11 pm

GBK85, I agree with your assessment of the season...good analysis. Duke’s defensive coordinator left in the off season so Im mildly hopeful they may struggle a little more in containing the Army O.

Im thinking 8-4 is very likely with 9-3 being attainable if Army minimizes mistakes.

10-2 and 11-1 are not out of the question if there are some fortunate breaks along the way.

They need to figure out how not to blow the winnable road game this year...thats been a problem the last couple years.

User avatar
RABBLE
New Recruit
Posts: 28498
Joined: December 2016
Contact:

Re: Maybe 11 wins?

Post by RABBLE » Mon May 28, 2018 5:37 pm

Sadly, our money game against a top team like OSU, Oklahoma, Michigan on an annual basis, is always a PROBABLE LOSS.
I would prefer no soft touches and surely no teams that are simply out of reach. I like realistic competition in all of our games. That is the true test of a teams worth and ability.
Unrealistic blowouts prove nothing except a sure-fire loss. Soft touches don't prove anything either except one for bowl eligibility and the other which doesn't mean a damn thing.


Post Reply Previous topicNext topic