Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

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wpgrad
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Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

Post by wpgrad »

Opened at Army being 3.5 favorite, quickly went to Army being 1.5 favorite. Now its a pick 'em.

Typically indicative that everyone in early betting was jumping on taking navy plus the points.
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WrekDivr
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Re: Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

Post by WrekDivr »

CBS sports shows that 79% of the public bet based on point spread is on Army. The money line bet is 51% Navy.

I also thought it interesting that 67% of the over/under bets are taking the over (now 33 points) which is unusual for a service academy game. SA’s notoriously go under.
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WrekDivr
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Re: Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

Post by WrekDivr »

CBS Sports showing that Navy is now favored by 1.5 points. That’s a 6-point swing toward Navy vs. the opening spread.

The narrative on some betting sites:

For Navy - better defense, played better competition and stood toe to toe vs. Notre Dame and Cincinnati then beat UCF outright. Army has a bad defense vs. the run.

For Army: Army has a better offense and showed that it’s de defense can stop a TO offense vs. AF.
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gabn92
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Re: Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

Post by gabn92 »

Navy now a 2.5 pt favorite. anybody know something about why it’s changing so much? There an injury we don’t know about?
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Armyfaninpa
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Re: Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

Post by Armyfaninpa »

I think Navy at -2.5 is more in accordance with what the spread should have been in the first place. The line may have to move even further if they want some more Army money to come in and even out all the $$$ already bet on Navy. I'm not sure what the QB situation is at Navy. I seem to recall Arline being injured vs UCF but the 3rd stringer looked to be a much better passer.
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gabn92
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Re: Army Navy now a "pick 'em"

Post by gabn92 »

To start as a 3 pt favorite and have the game shift to a 2.5 pt underdog in just 2 weeks is pretty interesting. I don't recall a shift of this magnitude before? A point or so is one thing, but to move 5-6 points and to actually switch the favored team...when there's been no news like a coach leaving or an injury or something like that? Seems strange to me.

Not sure what to make of it all? Were the odds-makers just that wrong compared to the betting public? They make their livelihoods by not making big mistakes when setting the odds, and this seems like a huge mistake by having it shift this much.

Who knows. Doubt the team is aware of any of this, but if they are, I hope it is motivational somehow that the betting world is sold on Navy winning this one.
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