Rankings and SP+ after Week 4

[WrekDivr]

Here are the key rankings and SP+ ratings )Holy Cross not included:

Rankings
Army 84, -2
Navy 119, -4 (dropped 4 on the bye)
AF 41, +2
BC 103, -5
Troy 76, -6
LSU 16, -4
UMass 124, -7
Coastal 83, -9

SP+ (Expected Win Margin vs. Average FBS Team)
Army -7.4
Navy -13.8
AF +6.3
BC -10.2
Troy -1.8
LSU +15.6
UMass -18.3
Coastal +1.5

Expected opening point spread (SP+ difference plus 3 points for home field advantage):

vs Navy: Army by 7
vs AF: AF by 17 (14 if you discount their home field advantage since we play in Denver)
vs BC: Army by 6
vs Troy: Troy by 3
vs LSU: LSU by 26
vs UMass: Army by 14
vs Coastal: Coastal by 6

If the games go as the above suggests and we beat Holy Cross, Army ends the season at 6-6, no bowl, no CIC.

However, there are a lot of games with a TD or less spread. If Army wins the games within a TD and beats Holy Cross, the season ends at 8-4, gets a bowl game, but no CIC.

Lots left it play for and the next two games will be critical to getting things on track.

[kfan12]

Great roll up thank you.

Just adding some levity. I think we have a pretty good chance. Offense is fairly new. QB is pretty inexperienced, and growing as are quite a few other folks. Gotta make more impact at the running game and incorporate the workhorses better with the racehorses.

[westcoastarmyfan]

kfan - I loved that movie

More stats
From PFF--the college stop rate rankings (133 teams ranked)
AF 34
Army 76
Navy 104
BC 111
Through 4 games, the AF D has been on the field for 35 drives. Army D on the field for 45 drives in 4 games. Navy D for 35 drives in 3 games and BC D 47 drives in 4 games. This does not count meaningless end of half or game drives.
I guess the AF offense is helping their D.

[BlackKnight09]

I think and hope that we will continue to improve offensively as the season goes on. Starting with a win against Boston College.

[WrekDivr]

Boston College is a winnable game if we play like we did at UTSA and the 1H at Syracuse. I would even call BC a must win to keep bowl hopes alive.

Other than LSU, all games are winnable, but will likely be close. We’ll see what happens when AF plays someone decent. Perhaps Navy (not decent, but a rivalry) or Colorado State will give them a test before we play them.

[ColdWarYushok87]

Agree that BC is a must win game. I think we definitely can win it and if we do, I’m confident we’ll also beat Troy. Those two games are huge for the season.

AF always seems to wind up as a close game. They look good this year but I don’t think we’ll get our doors blown off like we inevitably we will at LSU.

[wpgrad]

Our season will ride on BC and Troy.

Beat both (and I assume UMass), and then we gotta win either CC or AF or Navy to make a bowl (5 wins plus FCS)

Lose to either one, and now we pretty much gotta win the CiC to make a bowl which is a lofty task

[westcoastarmyfan]

OK, levity time
My son is a big Utah FB fan. He said today on UteHub, their free fan site, that someone posted this
"Army, they of the Triple Option offense, is averaging more passing yards a game than Utah so far this season (146.7 yards versus 145 yards)."
After that there were a bunch of Go Army posts. One of the posters has a son on the USMAPs FB team.