Army's Problem is NOT the New Offense
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:07 pm
The new offensive scheme is NOT the cause of Army’s problems this season. The fact that we changed the Offense at the same time as our decline this year makes it an easy target, but ANY scheme would have had problems with the other issues we face. In fact, I was surprised to find that our average TOP is actually up this year vs. last year. While I am not fully sold that the new Offense will work and do miss the TO, I think focusing on that issue papers over several issues we have had this year, including:
Turnovers
Through 8 games, we’ve turned the ball over 20 times, 2.5 times per game. We’ve fumbled the ball but recovered 9 additional times, which can be drive killers as we say Saturday vs. UMass. Last year we had a total of 12 turnovers all year, an average of 1 per game. Perhaps changing our offense had an impact here, but several of our fumbles happened while someone was running the ball and not during an exchange. Even if the change had a significant impact, that is due to changing and not specifically due to the scheme. We had similar issues changing to the TO.
The D Can’t Get off the Field
Out D has a total of 16 3-and-outs for the season, 2 per game. That includes 4 vs. Delaware State; without that game it gets worse. Saturday vs. UMass we forced a single 3-and-out. Additionally, our opponent’s 3rd and 4th down conversions have gone up. The numbers are slight (3d down conversions went from 38.7% to 40.4% and 4th down conversions went from 47.6% to 50.0%) but combined equal another set of downs every other game.
Play Calling
We’ve been able to run the ball (mostly) and are averaging 4.1 yards per rush. Note that sacks are included in rushing yardage. While 4.1 yards is not great (last year was 5.6). However, as we saw yesterday, we called pass plays on obvious running plays and the result was bad. We said we would be a run first team, but go away from that at odd times. We are throwing the ball over 26% of the time. Perhaps some of this is due to playing from behind all the time, but that is WAY higher than I expected. It is also likely understated due to sacks being counted as rushing yardage.
Defense Not Getting Turnovers
Last year, our defense had an average of 2 turnovers per game. This year is at 1. Combined with the increase in our turnovers, this puts us in a difficult situation. Last year, we got 4 more turnovers than we committed; this year we are 12 worse. Some blame the D’s issues with being on the field too long. However, TOP is slightly higher this year at 31:54 vs. 31:38 last year.
At any rate, this year has been disappointing to date and we have many things to address and blaming everything on the new scheme hides a lot of issues.
Turnovers
Through 8 games, we’ve turned the ball over 20 times, 2.5 times per game. We’ve fumbled the ball but recovered 9 additional times, which can be drive killers as we say Saturday vs. UMass. Last year we had a total of 12 turnovers all year, an average of 1 per game. Perhaps changing our offense had an impact here, but several of our fumbles happened while someone was running the ball and not during an exchange. Even if the change had a significant impact, that is due to changing and not specifically due to the scheme. We had similar issues changing to the TO.
The D Can’t Get off the Field
Out D has a total of 16 3-and-outs for the season, 2 per game. That includes 4 vs. Delaware State; without that game it gets worse. Saturday vs. UMass we forced a single 3-and-out. Additionally, our opponent’s 3rd and 4th down conversions have gone up. The numbers are slight (3d down conversions went from 38.7% to 40.4% and 4th down conversions went from 47.6% to 50.0%) but combined equal another set of downs every other game.
Play Calling
We’ve been able to run the ball (mostly) and are averaging 4.1 yards per rush. Note that sacks are included in rushing yardage. While 4.1 yards is not great (last year was 5.6). However, as we saw yesterday, we called pass plays on obvious running plays and the result was bad. We said we would be a run first team, but go away from that at odd times. We are throwing the ball over 26% of the time. Perhaps some of this is due to playing from behind all the time, but that is WAY higher than I expected. It is also likely understated due to sacks being counted as rushing yardage.
Defense Not Getting Turnovers
Last year, our defense had an average of 2 turnovers per game. This year is at 1. Combined with the increase in our turnovers, this puts us in a difficult situation. Last year, we got 4 more turnovers than we committed; this year we are 12 worse. Some blame the D’s issues with being on the field too long. However, TOP is slightly higher this year at 31:54 vs. 31:38 last year.
At any rate, this year has been disappointing to date and we have many things to address and blaming everything on the new scheme hides a lot of issues.