This piece pretty much says Army has little to no shot at a bowl...

[OptionThis]

Understood that many here think Army should not receive a bowl nod or that bowls are not that important, but I pass on this information as a public service. Even with the win over CC and a prospective win over Navy, Army's bowl hopes are bleak. The piece linked here states that for the 82 open bowl slots, there are 68 teams that have qualified for invitations, meaning they have 6 wins over qualifying opponents.

There are 24 more teams with 5 wins that have a chance to get to 6 wins this weekend to fill the remaining 14 slots. If those slots are not filled by that process, then 5 win teams can be selected but they are apparently to be selected based on the schools APR standing. Army's APR puts it 10th of the 5 win teams, meaning there will have to be a big majority of the current 5 win teams that do not win this next weekend for Army, with its APR rank, to be considered. Not seeing it.



https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2023/1 ... postseason

[OptionThis]

Having spent too much time on this, there is a big caveat to my prior negative post. Two points: First, though that article lists 9 teams ahead of Army on that APR ranking, only 5 teams are certain to get an exemption before Army. Those 5 teams - Minn, Rice, Miss St., UCF and South Carolina all have both 5 wins and higher APR scores. Three other teams on that list have only 4 wins and need to win this weekend to even be in consideration for a waiver. Wake Forest (84 on the latest CBS poll) must beat Syracuse (76). Michigan St. (83) must beat PENN St.(12) and Ball St (113) must beat Miami of Ohio (54). Though Baylor is listed in the article as just ahead of Army, it has only THREE wins and shouldn't even be on the list. So, depending on how those games go, Army could be as high as 6th in line to be selected from the pool of 5 win teams, again IF it beats Navy.

Second point - I thought that even IF all that worked out, Army would still need a waiver because two of its wins would be over FCS programs. That is obviously incorrect as the 5 wins Army may have would include only one of those FCS wins.

Bottom line, not sure how big a chance Army has but it does have a shot at a bowl and how the games this Saturday play out (and how Army plays against Navy) will decide it's bowl game fate.

[wpgrad]

My understanding is that if we had 6 countable wins, including Navy, then we automatically get the bid. With us having only 5 countable wins (if we beat navy), we then get put into the mix with others.

I think we have 50% chance of beating navy, and 25% chance of getting a bowl, so combined that means we have a 12.5% chance of beating navy and getting a bowl game.

[ARMORMAN]

My Christmas list:

1. Beat the squids
2. Keep the under-center triple forever

period.

[ColdWarYushok87]

Thanks for all the bowl info. Interesting to see we could potentially still slot in somewhere.

I came across a good thread on Twitter on the same topic and it mostly aligns with what you’ve written

https://x.com/brigadereview/status/1726 ... T3ZhQBDnLw

The short version appears to be: Beat Navy and there’s a small chance we go bowling.

[LoneStarPhan]

Beat Navy and finish 6-6 with CinC trophy in hand. That makes for a successful season with a strong finish.

If a bowl offer does come, great. If not, Army has to accept that losses to ULM and UMass were their responsibility and sealed their fate.

[ARMORMAN]

Target, LoneStar!

[kfan12]

Those APRs are such a joke. Anyone actually look at them? I really don't believe most of those major programs are actually graduating high percentages of football players with a degree to do anything. Aside from Northwestern, come January I'd bet if you walk on to the campus of the first seven on the list, you couldn't find a senior football player stepping foot on campus. What a crock, every time the NCAA comes up with a system to assess academic performance, the schools devise a system to subvert it.

AFA is above USMA, probably because most of their football team graduated two years ago...LOL