Early 2025 Thoughts

[GO 150s 87]

Yes I know, I haven't posted here in some time. Various reasons for that but it's always on my to-do list to jump back on and show a sign of life. Lately I've been trying to feel some excitement regarding Spring Practice and the return of Army Football. Strangely though, I have chronic pessimism regarding the coming season. I hope it is unfounded but it comes with reasons. Here are a few -

1. QB - Obviously the most glaring vacancy on the team that must be filled. Unfortunately, there are no stand out candidates to take over the starting role full time. I have a gut feeling that in 2025 we will see a return of the dreaded "QB by committee" approach that we saw almost exclusively from 2020-2022 seasons. I am no fan of this situational QB approach due to it's predictability based upon which QB is in and it's inability to generate offensive consistency.

2. Monken swirl - it's already started again (see Stanford) and it is a distraction. This does not help recruiting or team confidence behind closed doors.

3. Complacency - AAC Champions is a good thing. Defending the championship is another thing. Competition is going to be much more fierce this time around. But I think back to the '97 season. That team was fresh off the '96 season and showed up with an air of assumption that they had arrived. They then proceeded to get smoked out of the gate and ended the season getting shellacked by the squids.

4. Alarm bells - The general assumption is that Monken has been dominant against the squids. To the contrary, the best five games he had were the first five with two of those being the rebuilding years. While 2019 saw Army have a rash of injuries and locker room issues, as well as squids having Malcolm Perry, something else happened that year - arrival of Brian Newberry. Army's offensive production from 2019-2024 against the squids has been atrocious, unimaginative, unable to adjust to Newberry's attacking and adjusting defensive schemes, and fortunate to have won 3 out of the last 6. As a matter of fact, all three of those wins had a defensive or special teams score in which two of those made the difference between winning or losing (2022 and 2023). Monken's achilles heal has become his offensive approach to playing the squids. If nothing changes it is unsustainable to expect wins in this game. I'm writing another piece that statistically analyzes this that I will post later.

Bottom line? My early prediction (and I am glad to be wrong and hope I am) is that 2025 will be a .500 to sub-.500 season with an 0-2 CIC game record. Time will tell...

[RABBLE]

The 2024 season was spectacular. Ok, we lost our 2 biggest games but still all the accolades we received can last forever. Bryson Daily was one of a kind. Once in a generation.
2025? I don't know what we can offer and either any other team on the schedule due to the transfer portal. College football has become a wreck. No one knows from year to year now. Only the truly BIG BOYS with lots of money to spend on players. A few will dominate as usual. Sorta takes the fun out of game. It's become a contest now with about only 10-12 teams. It's not supposed to be this way but sadly it has become that way.
My excitement from now on has been muted. As an old guy, I miss the way it was. That's just me I guess.

[gabn92]

Always with the negative waves, Moriarty! (some on this board are old enough to make this connection)

I think it's way too early to be hitting the panic button about the season. Let's give the team a chance to form for this new season before pronouncing doom and gloom. Yes, big shoes to fill to replace Daily. But Army has been successful without an all-world QB before, so the next man up doesn't have to be as dominant as Daily was for Army to win. Coleman was effective when he played last year and Sal's reports indicate there is some healthy competition, so I don't get the panic here?

I look forward to your additional analysis on Navy. My first reaction is that you sound like some of the intel analysts out there that puff up the enemy to be 9 feet tall and unstoppable in their analysis...only for us to go out and squash them with superior execution, firepower, leadership, etc. The Squids have improved and Newberry seems like he's going to be a good coach for them...so I agree that they're not going to be pushovers. But they're not world beaters either. It was more than dumb luck that led to the wins in 2022 and 2023 and last year's loss was certainly impacted by Army's success and having played (and won!) the conference championship game the week before, while Navy rested, prepared, and sharpened their bayonets for the ambush.

I'm not sure how much impact the swirl around Monken has...would be interested if you have any inside scoop on that from players or other coaches, or it's just you surmising what they all "must" be feeling? Football is football...and successful coaches are offered opportunities at bigger programs. This isn't news to anyone that plays football or coaches football. How much of this concern is just us projecting onto the team our own angst at the possibility of Monken leaving?

I'm not expecting another 12 win season, but I'm also not ready to pronounce a sub-.500 season at this point either. Let's take a collective deep breath and let this play out through the spring and summer camps and see how they look when we open in late August at least before predicting a losing season.

[wpgrad]

I have the same fears of a letdown season in 2025
1. Have we ever really had success with a non-BIG quarterback since Monken arrived? Ahmad and Daly were awesome. But our 6-6 years (with 2 wins versus 1-AA) seemed filled with the small, thin QBs like Laws and Anderson and Tyler that just seemed to get alot of 2 yard runs and oft-injured. Even hopkins (who flopped senior year and was more of a passer per se) was still pretty put together.
2. It blows me away that a school with unlimited spots on a football team (we have like 200 players) can't find a 225 pound athletic running back type that wants to play QB year after year.
3. Navy is rolling. I thought the newberry move to HC would backfire on them but it was a good hire and his OC hire was an A+ hire. And, as we've seen for 2 decades, these navy coaches like being at Navy
4. I don't see any way that Monken's repeated job searches doesn't impact the locker room. Hard to talk about "brotherhood" and "last of the hard" when you have one foot out the door each December. Our cadets are not stupid and they can see right through that BS.

[Lusk2003]

100% agree, I honestly get a feel that the cadets have more respect for the assistant coaches than Coach Monken. Has there been an open job that Monken's agent hasn't gotten his name out there for? He was even mentioned for the Tulane job two years ago, a job in our conference.

I think that is part of the reason we have so much assistant coaching turnover, he has one foot out the door and if you're not on that train with him out the door why would you wait around West Point to potentially be jobless as he tries to get out every year? Navy's coaches stay at Navy and that will be hard to compete with in recruiting. I obviously think Coach Monken has done an amazing job here but I want someone who wants to be here to ignite the passion he had when he first got the job.

I think a QB will emerge either between Coleman, Washington, or Hellums. I'd be surprised if they try the duel route again.

[RABBLE]

Always with the negative waves, Moriarty! (some on this board are old enough to make this connection)

I think it's way too early to be hitting the panic button about the season. Let's give the team a chance to form for this new season before pronouncing doom and gloom. Yes, big shoes to fill to replace Daily. But Army has been successful without an all-world QB before, so the next man up doesn't have to be as dominant as Daily was for Army to win. Coleman was effective when he played last year and Sal's reports indicate there is some healthy competition, so I don't get the panic here?

I look forward to your additional analysis on Navy. My first reaction is that you sound like some of the intel analysts out there that puff up the enemy to be 9 feet tall and unstoppable in their analysis...only for us to go out and squash them with superior execution, firepower, leadership, etc. The Squids have improved and Newberry seems like he's going to be a good coach for them...so I agree that they're not going to be pushovers. But they're not world beaters either. It was more than dumb luck that led to the wins in 2022 and 2023 and last year's loss was certainly impacted by Army's success and having played (and won!) the conference championship game the week before, while Navy rested, prepared, and sharpened their bayonets for the ambush.

I'm not sure how much impact the swirl around Monken has...would be interested if you have any inside scoop on that from players or other coaches, or it's just you surmising what they all "must" be feeling? Football is football...and successful coaches are offered opportunities at bigger programs. This isn't news to anyone that plays football or coaches football. How much of this concern is just us projecting onto the team our own angst at the possibility of Monken leaving?

I'm not expecting another 12 win season, but I'm also not ready to pronounce a sub-.500 season at this point either. Let's take a collective deep breath and let this play out through the spring and summer camps and see how they look when we open in late August at least before predicting a losing season.

My gosh, now I am being called MORIARTY

[RABBLE]

Always with the negative waves, Moriarty! (some on this board are old enough to make this connection)

I think it's way too early to be hitting the panic button about the season. Let's give the team a chance to form for this new season before pronouncing doom and gloom. Yes, big shoes to fill to replace Daily. But Army has been successful without an all-world QB before, so the next man up doesn't have to be as dominant as Daily was for Army to win. Coleman was effective when he played last year and Sal's reports indicate there is some healthy competition, so I don't get the panic here?

I look forward to your additional analysis on Navy. My first reaction is that you sound like some of the intel analysts out there that puff up the enemy to be 9 feet tall and unstoppable in their analysis...only for us to go out and squash them with superior execution, firepower, leadership, etc. The Squids have improved and Newberry seems like he's going to be a good coach for them...so I agree that they're not going to be pushovers. But they're not world beaters either. It was more than dumb luck that led to the wins in 2022 and 2023 and last year's loss was certainly impacted by Army's success and having played (and won!) the conference championship game the week before, while Navy rested, prepared, and sharpened their bayonets for the ambush.

I'm not sure how much impact the swirl around Monken has...would be interested if you have any inside scoop on that from players or other coaches, or it's just you surmising what they all "must" be feeling? Football is football...and successful coaches are offered opportunities at bigger programs. This isn't news to anyone that plays football or coaches football. How much of this concern is just us projecting onto the team our own angst at the possibility of Monken leaving?

I'm not expecting another 12 win season, but I'm also not ready to pronounce a sub-.500 season at this point either. Let's take a collective deep breath and let this play out through the spring and summer camps and see how they look when we open in late August at least before predicting a losing season.

How about that!! Now my name is MORIARTY. I sorta of like it. It's better than some of the names I have been called. True, I am old and sometimes negative. I expect the worst and when it turns out better than I expected, I feel much better for it. I really do expect a good season though. We will find the way for a bowl bid and our two big games.