Sports Illustrated (and ESPN) say Army will again contend in the AAC in 2025

[OptionThis]

https://www.si.com/onsi/armed-forces-sp ... -again-aac

https://www.espn.com/college-football/i ... y-fbs-team

[gabn92]

Could only read the SI article since I don't have the ESPN+ subscription...

But I'm wondering if the SI guys watched the Army-Navy game? They're listing only Tulane and Memphis ahead of Army in the AAC...but Navy spanked us badly and their star QB is returning.

It will be interesting to see how the offensive rebuild for Army goes this year, but it's a pretty big task. Not only to have to replace Daily, but Udoh, 60% of the Joe Moore Award-wining O-line...and the O-Line coach? Not impossible, but I think we should all be expecting a step back offensively...just a question of how big of a step back.

Hopefully the D can keep the games close and the O develops over the course of the season and peaks in time to get some revenge on the Squids!

[OptionThis]

It's long, but here is the ESPN+ piece:


Initial 2025 college football SP+ rankings for every FBS team

The numbers show there's reason for optimism for Kalen DeBoer in his second year at Alabama.
Gary Cosby Jr./USA TODAY Sports

Bill Connelly
Feb 27, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

We're less than six months from the start of the 2025 college football season. While the rhythm of the offseason has changed significantly in recent years and we know rosters won't be set until after the spring transfer window has closed, it's almost never too early to preview and projecting the coming season as best we can.

We've completed the first step in that process: the posting of the initial returning production rankings. Now it's time for Step 2. Based on current rosters, it's time to post the initial SP+ ratings for the 2025 season.



I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you're pretty far down the projections road. In fact, this factor accounts for more than 60% of the overall projection at this point.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by both the past few years of recruiting rankings and the quality of incoming transfers, and it accounts for about 14% of the current projection.

3. Recent history. Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This factor accounts for a little more than 20% of the projection, and it focuses only on what happened within the past three seasons. I used to use a weighted history stretching back five years, but that's a less effective approach now with the changes in the sport.

I will update these numbers in May and August after there have been further transfers and roster changes, and my annual preview series will begin after the May numbers are posted. But for now, let's establish the 2025 hierarchy.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.

In addition to the rankings of every FBS team (overall, offense, defense and special teams), we'll look at conference breakdowns and how SP+ matches up with the eyeball test in terms of which teams seem to be overrated and which could be underrated at this early stage.


Jump to a section:
SP+ rankings
Breakdown by conference
Teams to buy, sell



Initial 2025 SP+ rankings
Here are the full rankings, now featuring 136 teams with the addition of Delaware and Missouri State.


Team SP+ Off. SP+ Def. SP+ ST SP+
1. Ohio St. 28.0 38.6 (6) 10.6 (2) 0.3 (11)
2. Alabama 26.1 39.1 (5) 13.0 (5) 0.2 (20)
3. Penn St. 25.3 39.1 (4) 13.8 (7) 0.1 (58)
4. Georgia 24.5 37.9 (7) 13.3 (6) 0.6 (1)
5. Notre Dame 23.4 37.3 (10) 13.9 (8) -0.2 (106)
6. Oregon 22.6 39.5 (3) 16.9 (15) 0.5 (3)
7. Texas 21.9 32.0 (28) 10.1 (1) -0.5 (135)
8. Tennessee 21.3 33.6 (22) 12.3 (4) 0.2 (21)
9. Ole Miss 20.2 34.5 (19) 14.3 (9) 0.3 (7)
10. LSU 19.5 39.7 (2) 20.2 (26) 0.1 (48)
11. Clemson 18.8 37.8 (8) 19.0 (21) -0.3 (133)
12. Texas A&M 18.5 35.7 (12) 17.1 (16) 0.2 (24)
13. Michigan 17.7 28.7 (51) 11.0 (3) 0.2 (22)
14. Miami 16.9 42.5 (1) 25.6 (49) 0.2 (19)
15. Missouri 15.7 32.0 (27) 16.3 (13) -0.1 (96)
16. S. Carolina 15.4 33.1 (24) 17.7 (18) 0.1 (50)
17. Florida 14.4 33.6 (23) 19.2 (22) 0.3 (8)
18. SMU 14.1 37.4 (9) 23.3 (38) 0.1 (40)
19. Kansas St. 13.7 34.4 (20) 20.8 (28) 0.2 (26)
20. Oklahoma 13.1 29.7 (43) 16.6 (14) 0.2 (31)
21. Iowa 12.5 27.5 (64) 15.0 (10) 0.3 (12)
22. Louisville 12.4 36.7 (11) 24.4 (45) -0.1 (97)
23. Auburn 12.1 29.9 (42) 17.8 (19) -0.1 (83)
24. Indiana 12.0 32.0 (29) 20.0 (24) 0.2 (29)
25. Illinois 11.2 30.5 (38) 19.3 (23) 0.2 (30)
26. TCU 10.5 34.6 (18) 24.1 (41) -0.1 (92)
27. BYU 10.1 31.6 (32) 21.5 (31) 0.3 (10)
28. Iowa St. 9.9 30.5 (39) 20.6 (27) -0.1 (87)
29. Arizona St. 9.8 31.3 (34) 21.5 (32) -0.6 (136)
30. USC 9.7 35.4 (14) 25.8 (52) 0.1 (63)
31. Boise St. 9.5 35.3 (15) 25.8 (53) -0.3 (132)
32. Utah 9.5 26.7 (70) 17.3 (17) 0.2 (36)
33. Texas Tech 8.7 35.5 (13) 26.8 (61) 0.2 (23)
34. Nebraska 8.2 24.5 (89) 16.3 (12) -0.2 (119)
35. Arkansas 8.2 31.9 (30) 23.7 (39) 0.2 (35)
36. Baylor 8.0 34.6 (17) 26.6 (58) 0.2 (38)
37. Minnesota 7.9 23.4 (98) 15.5 (11) 0.0 (64)
38. Washington 7.3 28.5 (54) 21.2 (29) -0.2 (121)
39. Duke 6.5 27.8 (62) 21.3 (30) 0.0 (66)
40. Kentucky 6.4 26.5 (73) 20.1 (25) 0.3 (14)
41. Wisconsin 6.1 25.1 (83) 19.0 (20) 0.0 (70)
42. Va. Tech 5.2 29.4 (49) 24.2 (43) 0.2 (37)
43. Rutgers 4.6 28.7 (50) 24.1 (42) 0.1 (52)
44. N. Carolina 4.6 31.4 (33) 26.8 (60) 0.0 (72)
45. NC State 4.5 31.6 (31) 27.1 (63) 0.1 (55)
46. Ga. Tech 4.5 32.0 (26) 27.5 (65) -0.1 (100)
47. JMU 4.0 29.7 (46) 25.7 (51) 0.1 (53)
48. Colorado 3.9 30.0 (41) 26.1 (54) -0.2 (114)
49. Kansas 3.9 32.5 (25) 28.6 (78) -0.1 (94)
50. Tulane 3.4 31.0 (35) 27.6 (66) 0.0 (77)
51. Florida St. 3.2 25.0 (85) 21.7 (33) 0.3 (13)
52. Memphis 2.8 35.2 (16) 32.3 (101) 0.1 (42)
53. Pittsburgh 2.7 29.7 (45) 27.0 (62) 0.2 (17)
54. Vanderbilt 1.8 27.4 (67) 25.7 (50) 0.3 (9)
55. Cincinnati 1.7 26.1 (76) 24.4 (44) -0.1 (88)
56. UCF 1.3 27.7 (63) 26.3 (56) 0.0 (81)
57. Syracuse 1.2 30.9 (36) 29.7 (84) -0.2 (101)
58. California 1.2 26.7 (71) 25.5 (48) 0.0 (82)
59. Liberty 1.1 27.8 (61) 26.7 (59) -0.2 (105)
60. Army 1.1 24.3 (93) 23.2 (35) 0.0 (75)
61. UTSA 0.7 34.0 (21) 33.2 (106) 0.2 (33)
62. S. Alabama 0.6 29.6 (47) 29.0 (79) 0.0 (69)
63. Navy 0.0 28.2 (58) 28.2 (69) -0.2 (113)
64. W. Virginia 0.0 28.5 (55) 28.5 (75) 0.2 (18)
65. Miss. St. 0.0 28.0 (59) 28.0 (67) 0.2 (27)
66. Arizona -0.1 27.4 (68) 27.5 (64) 0.2 (16)
67. Maryland -0.2 24.7 (87) 24.9 (47) 0.0 (68)
68. Boston College -0.3 26.3 (74) 26.6 (57) -0.2 (127)
69. UCLA -0.8 24.0 (94) 24.8 (46) 0.1 (54)
70. UNLV -1.1 28.3 (56) 29.4 (81) 0.4 (5)
71. Oregon St. -1.3 28.6 (52) 29.9 (85) 0.0 (67)
72. Ohio -1.8 24.3 (92) 26.1 (55) -0.3 (131)
73. Oklahoma St. -2.0 27.5 (65) 29.5 (82) 0.0 (78)
74. Louisiana -2.2 28.5 (53) 30.7 (87) 0.4 (6)
75. Toledo -2.2 26.2 (75) 28.4 (71) -0.1 (86)
76. Michigan St. -2.2 21.0 (107) 23.2 (37) 0.2 (32)
77. Troy -2.6 25.9 (78) 28.4 (73) -0.1 (84)
78. Houston -2.9 20.3 (111) 23.2 (36) -0.2 (120)
79. Texas St. -3.5 29.5 (48) 33.0 (104) 0.0 (79)
80. Ga. Southern -4.3 26.9 (69) 31.1 (91) 0.2 (15)
81. USF -4.3 29.7 (44) 34.0 (111) 0.2 (25)
82. Virginia -4.8 24.3 (91) 29.1 (80) 0.1 (56)
83. Wake Forest -5.2 25.2 (81) 30.5 (86) 0.1 (60)
84. Wash. St. -5.4 30.3 (40) 35.7 (117) -0.2 (110)
85. San Jose St. -5.7 25.7 (79) 31.4 (94) -0.2 (108)
86. Fresno St. -5.9 22.6 (101) 28.4 (74) -0.2 (102)
87. Northwestern -6.1 17.6 (122) 23.7 (40) -0.2 (103)
88. Stanford -6.2 25.4 (80) 31.6 (96) 0.2 (28)
89. E. Carolina -6.2 28.2 (57) 34.4 (114) 0.0 (65)
90. UConn -6.4 24.9 (86) 31.3 (92) 0.1 (61)
91. Marshall -6.5 24.6 (88) 31.1 (90) 0.1 (59)
92. N. Texas -6.7 30.5 (37) 37.3 (123) -0.1 (91)
93. App. St. -7.3 25.0 (84) 32.3 (100) -0.2 (112)
94. West. Kent. -7.6 20.7 (108) 28.3 (70) 0.6 (2)
95. Air Force -7.8 20.3 (110) 28.1 (68) -0.2 (125)
96. Buffalo -7.9 21.7 (102) 29.6 (83) 0.1 (49)
97. Old Dominion -8.3 23.2 (99) 31.5 (95) 0.0 (80)
98. Coastal Caro. -8.7 27.8 (60) 36.6 (121) 0.1 (43)
99. Miami-OH -9.0 14.2 (134) 23.2 (34) 0.4 (4)
100. Colorado St. -9.5 23.8 (96) 33.2 (107) -0.1 (89)
101. Bowling Green -9.9 23.2 (100) 33.0 (105) 0.0 (71)
102. J'ville St. -10.4 26.0 (77) 36.4 (120) -0.4 (134)
103. Wyoming -11.0 19.7 (115) 30.8 (88) 0.1 (46)
104. Delaware -11.1 21.4 (105) 32.5 (102) -0.2 (115)
105. Hawaii -11.9 20.0 (113) 31.9 (97) -0.2 (118)
106. Arkansas St. -12.1 27.4 (66) 39.5 (131) 0.1 (51)
107. La. Tech -12.7 15.7 (130) 28.4 (72) -0.1 (98)
108. FAU -12.7 21.6 (103) 34.3 (113) -0.2 (107)
109. San Diego St. -12.9 15.6 (131) 28.5 (76) -0.1 (93)
110. East. Mich. -13.4 19.9 (114) 33.4 (108) 0.1 (57)
111. Sam Houston -13.5 19.4 (117) 32.9 (103) -0.2 (129)
112. UAB -13.6 25.2 (82) 38.7 (129) 0.1 (47)
113. Georgia St. -13.7 23.4 (97) 37.2 (122) -0.2 (109)
114. N. Illinois -14.1 14.4 (133) 28.5 (77) -0.2 (124)
115. UL-Monroe -14.4 17.0 (127) 31.4 (93) -0.1 (95)
116. Purdue -14.6 17.7 (121) 32.3 (99) -0.2 (117)
117. Rice -14.8 16.1 (129) 30.9 (89) -0.2 (104)
118. New Mex. St. -14.9 21.3 (106) 36.2 (119) 0.2 (34)
119. FIU -15.2 18.3 (120) 33.4 (110) -0.1 (99)
120. Utah St. -15.2 24.4 (90) 39.6 (132) 0.0 (76)
121. Cent. Mich. -15.9 17.5 (124) 33.4 (109) 0.1 (44)
122. West. Mich. -16.4 19.1 (118) 35.5 (116) 0.1 (39)
123. Missouri St. -16.6 26.6 (72) 43.2 (134) -0.2 (115)
124. UTEP -16.6 17.5 (123) 34.1 (112) -0.2 (130)
125. Tulsa -17.2 21.5 (104) 38.6 (126) -0.2 (111)
126. Middle Tenn. -17.5 17.2 (125) 34.7 (115) -0.1 (90)
127. Temple -18.4 19.6 (116) 38.0 (125) 0.1 (62)
128. So. Miss -18.6 20.1 (112) 38.7 (127) -0.1 (85)
129. Akron -18.9 17.2 (126) 36.1 (118) 0.1 (41)
130. Kennesaw St. -19.7 12.3 (136) 32.0 (98) 0.0 (73)
131. Nevada -20.4 18.3 (119) 38.7 (128) -0.2 (126)
132. New Mexico -21.5 23.9 (95) 45.4 (136) -0.2 (123)
133. Ball St. -22.3 16.9 (128) 39.1 (130) 0.0 (74)
134. Charlotte -22.8 14.8 (132) 37.6 (124) 0.1 (45)
135. UMass -24.0 20.3 (109) 44.4 (135) -0.2 (128)
136. Kent St. -27.2 13.2 (135) 40.4 (133) -0.2 (122)

Conference-by-conference breakdown
One of my main takeaways from the returning production rankings was the potential for crowding atop the rankings. Of 2024's year-end top seven teams in SP+, five currently rank in the triple digits in returning production. But some of the teams that finished in the teens and 20s in SP+, not too far away, return far more production. If the transfer portal is doing anything to help the sport and its parity, it comes from allowing college football's second tier to inch closer to its first.

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At the end of 2023, the difference between the SP+ ratings of the No. 2 (Georgia) and No. 16 (Texas A&M) teams was 15.6 points; at the moment, the difference between No. 2 and No. 16 is just 10.7 points. We've got 14 teams within a touchdown of the top five and 21 within a touchdown of the top 10. Remember how messy the 2024 regular season was, especially early on? It wouldn't take too much for 2025 to get even messier in that regard. And in this house, we love mess.

That said, there's no change in what conference can claim to be the deepest in FBS -- the SEC. There are lots of ways to determine conference quality, and if you were to look at only the top few teams, the Big Ten would grade out quite well. But since the Big Ten tends to have far more dead weight -- last season, the SEC had one team that finished worse than 52nd in SP+, while the Big Ten had seven -- looking at averages favors the SEC. And despite a lack of top-15 teams, averages favor the Big 12 over the ACC in the battle for No. 3.

Average SP+ rating by conference
Avg. rating Off. (Rank) Def. (Rank)
1. SEC +14.9 32.8 (first) 17.8 (first)
2. Big Ten +8.3 28.1 (fourth) 19.8 (second)
3. Big 12 +5.4 29.9 (third) 24.6 (third)
4. ACC +4.7 30.6 (second) 25.9 (fourth)
5. Sun Belt -7.0 25.6 (sixth) 32.6 (fifth)
6. AAC -7.7 25.7 (fifth) 33.5 (ninth)
7. Mountain West -9.5 23.2 (seventh) 32.6 (sixth)
8. Conference USA -12.9 20.3 (eighth) 33.2 (eighth)
9. MAC -14.1 19.1 (ninth) 33.1 (seventh)
Some conferences are far more crowded near the top than others, but here are the three teams with the highest current rankings in each conference:

SEC: No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 7 Texas

Big Ten: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State, No. 6 Oregon

Big 12: No. 19 Kansas State, No. 26 TCU, No. 27 BYU

ACC: No. 11 Clemson, No. 14 Miami, No. 18 SMU

Sun Belt: No. 47 James Madison, No. 62 South Alabama, No. 74 Louisiana

AAC: No. 50 Tulane, No. 52 Memphis, No. 60 Army

MWC: No. 31 Boise State, No. 70 UNLV, No. 85 San José State

C-USA: No. 59 Liberty, No. 94 Western Kentucky, No. 102 Jacksonville State

MAC: No. 72 Ohio, No. 75 Toledo, No. 96 Buffalo

In the Mountain West and Conference USA, the conference races start out as, well, non-races. Boise State is projected 10.6 points ahead of the MWC's second-best team, UNLV (which is at least 4.6 points ahead of everyone else), while Liberty is 8.7 points ahead of everyone else in C-USA. But even if this portends a couple of dull conference races, we luckily have the Big 12. It should provide enough mess for at least three conferences by itself.

Number of teams within 7 points of top of conference
8: Big 12
5: AAC, SEC
4: ACC, Sun Belt
3: Big Ten, MAC
1: C-USA, MWC


While Kansas State starts out a little ahead of the Big 12 pack, the conference has seven teams ranked between 26th and 36th, including last year's major Big 12 championship contenders (Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU), a couple of late 2024 risers (TCU, Baylor), a major bounce-back candidate (Utah) and a team with one of the best transfer classes in the country (Texas Tech). This is going to be fun.

[gabn92]

Thanks for posting the article...interesting.

The trouble with the returning production stats is of course that not all returning production is equal. They measure and then rack/stack teams based on a number. But returning production on offense is probably a little more valuable than defense. Returning production in key positions like QB is probably more valuable than other roles. Returning production from a unit that wasn't particularly good last year may not tell you anything.

Huge, huge holes to fill for Army on offense. They've got Army #3 in the AAC in returning production, but that's because the defense returns a good amount. I don't think the balance of that equation will put Army at #3 in the AAC...the returning defensive production will give some buffer for all that was lost on offense, but middle of the conference seems about right to me...at least until we see how the new offense comes together and those holes are filled.

[OptionThis]

Agreed, the performance of Army, or any team, in 2025 cannot be distilled to numbers or a formula and the loss of a stud QB to an option team that especially relies on QB play has to be particularly tough to quantify.

Will be an interesting year....

[PrideandDream]

Our offense is way more important than our defense to have success. The name of the game is controlling the ball and consistency in scoring on drives. Ideally defense only needs 1 stop to win and ST just needs no SNAFUs.

PD